According to Enough Project, several flashpoints emerged in Southern Sudan after April elections and tensions have escalated. Photo: Timothy Mckulka/UNMIS

JUBA, Sudan – The January 2011 referendum in Southern Sudan will mark a turning point for the region and could see the formation of Africa’s newest state, but how will the south fare after the vote?

A report commissioned by the non-profit organization Pact Sudan and conducted by the London School of Economics in several of Southern Sudan’s states (Eastern Equatoria, Greater Bahr el-Ghazal and Upper Nile), highlights issues that pose a threat to peace and security in Southern Sudan.

These include the successes and failures of peacebuilding efforts following the signing in 2005 of the Comprehensive Peace Accord (CPA), which ended two decades of civil war; the challenges of decentralization; “tribal conflict”; changing motivations for cattle-raiding and the role of marginalized youth in this phenomenon.

Entitled Southern Sudan at Odds With Itself: Dynamics of Conflict and Predicaments of Peace, it found that increasing intra-South violence killed more than 2,500 people and displaced 350,000 more in 2009, while various peacebuilding, humanitarian and development approaches had “created some of the current predicaments of peace, and contributed to the dynamics of ongoing conflict”.

The unclear role of chiefs and traditional leaders had also increased rule of law and governance problems. Such uneven modes of local control, it said, could “shift readily towards the establishment of ethnic fiefdoms by equating ethnicity with government structures and access to resources”.

“The run-up to, and outcome of, the vote must be managed with extreme care,” warned 26 NGOs and civil society groups in a 14 July statement. “The guarantors to the CPA have both a responsibility and an ability to help Sudan implement the CPA and prevent further conflict… It is imperative that the guarantors urgently redouble their efforts to ensure adequate preparations for the referenda [one in Abyei and one in Southern Sudan], and help secure agreements on sensitive issues such as border demarcation and oil sharing,” they said.

Flashpoints

Several flashpoints emerged after April elections, and tensions have escalated, the US-based Enough Project said. “The perception in some areas of the South that polls were rigged, combined with continued abuses by security forces and growing concerns that proxy militias are becoming more active, are making for a volatile stew in the countdown to the southern independence referendum,” it said in a 14 July statement.

Religious leaders, who have formed the Sudanese Religious Leaders Referendum Initiative, say local people need to be made aware of the referendum process. “The people [of Southern Sudan] need to know the consequences of the vote and the challenges that come along with this historic transition,” Bishop Arkanjelo Wani Lemi told a news conference in Juba on 13 July.

Already, said Refugees International, displaced communities of southerners in Khartoum State had expressed serious concern about what their lives would be like if Southern Sudan separated. “In the worst case scenario, the January 2011 referendum could spark the forced expulsion of southerners from the north and northerners from the south,” it added, noting that this could affect an estimated 1.5 to 2 million people.

But President Thabo Mbeki, chair of the African Union panel on Sudan, expressed cautious optimism. “The outcome of the Southern Sudan referendum, whether for unity or secession, will offer the first real opportunity since Sudan’s independence in 1956 for the people of South and North Sudan to restructure their relationship to define an equitable and mutually beneficial mode of peaceful coexistence,” he told a meeting in Khartoum on 10 July.

Many observers believe most southerners will vote for secession. Photo: Peter Martell/IRIN

“If the Southern Sudanese choose secession, the tasks arising from this will not be less demanding,” he said. “Should they vote to establish a separate sovereign state in Southern Sudan, the Southern Sudanese will not be voting to change the facts of geography, nor the direction of the flow of the Nile river.”

Uprisings

According to the Enough Project, the clearest indication of the escalating tensions in the post-election period are three separate uprisings in Jonglei and Unity States by dissident former members of the Sudan Peoples’ Liberation Army (SPLA) and the SPLM.

“The leaders of these rebellions – Lt-Gen George Athor, the defeated opposition party candidate David Yauyau in Jonglei, and Galwak Gai in Unity – have expressed their discontent with the Juba-based government and with the political leadership in their own states in particular through militancy,” it said. “Aside from the threat of violence these rebellions pose, what is perhaps most alarming is that the southern government… and the SPLA itself, have proved incapable of resolving them, either politically or militarily.”

Similar fears were raised by Human Rights Watch in a recent report documenting rights violations during the April elections. Those elections, it said, “raised the spectre of growing instability in such states as Central Equatoria, Jonglei, Unity, and Western Bahr el Ghazal, and they have set a worrying precedent for Southern Sudan’s forthcoming referendum on self-determination.”

Many observers believe most southerners will vote for secession.

“Regardless of the outcome of the vote, Sudan will be fundamentally changed once the interim arrangements set by the CPA lapse six months later, in July 2011, and the Interim National Constitution of 2005 is renegotiated,” the NGOs warned. “Managing the final year of the CPA and the ensuing transition is a daunting task.”

“I think there will be a lot of problems,” Alfred Lokuji of Juba University told IRIN, adding that the southern leaders could turn out to be “dictatorial, autocratic, and ruthless, to show that the SPLM [Sudan People's Liberation Movement - a former rebel group now in power in the south] has the power to deal with internal threats.”

Assuming the region votes to form a separate state, the need for the SPLM-dominated government of Southern Sudan to consolidate its authority could also lead to abuses by the security sector that would increase popular discontent at the local level, he said.

Related Posts

As vigilante groups go, the revered Sungu Sungu is certainly in its own league. Almost single-handedly, they have tamed crime in the entire Gusii region and parts of Luo Nyanza, with success that have the police green with envy. They execute notorious criminals in the most criminally callous and cold way, and dictate where they should be buried, often at a defunct cemetery. They lynch sorcerers and their ilk and have moved to regulate the Matatu industry, albeit not too fast.

Gangs, mafias, vigilante groups and guerillas, share three things in common: they emerge with good intentions in their hearts, a charismatic leader behind them, and at a time of crisis to fill in the void often left by the government. Because of continued neglect, the masses turn to them, entrusting their sovereignty to them, dutifully obeying their demands that gradually grow ridiculous; and before you know it, they will be crying out louder for someone to help.

As expected, their intervention is normally godsend. They execute their orders with military (sic) precision. They are able to recruit the many readily available uneducated young men to do the dirty job, before the men become an authority of their own. The young men are often pawns of the faceless leaders.

It is never long before the public discovers that they are being taken for a ride. The gangs, almost inevitably turn into extortionist movements in order to sustain their ‘good agenda’, even long after they are irrelevant.

In deed, the Sungu Sungu have come full circle. They arrived at the most opportune time. In 2003, the crime wave in the Suneka region in the outskirts of Kisii town was getting out of hand. Night runners were holding the villages hostage and something had to be done. The government had came up with the popular idea of community policing. For the region, Sungu Sungu was just the right antidote, and they did their job to the satisfaction of many, even though not in the most orderly and just manner. They killed and lynched all suspected thugs, sorcerers and magicians (they still do in the Gusii region) and within record time, order was restored.

Impressed by this precision and ruthlessness handling of the hardest criminals, wealthy businessmen decided to make them the unofficial custodians of their security, they never disappointed. Since then, they have killed single-handedly every criminal and wannabe, leaving in their awake, reasonably satisfied masses.

Lately, though, they are taking over Kisii town, which is the regional hub for business, and easily Kenya’s most rapidly expanding town. The rich are paying dearly for the lives. Small businesses and medium enterprises will soon start paying this tax. Now they are encroaching into the Matatu industry from the periphery, and soon they will be in full charge like the Mungiki in Nairobi. It not a laughing matter, try boarding a vehicle at a wrong place in Kisii town, and you will meet their full wrath, which is conveniently the right thing to do, but the people have paid the town council and the Kenyan government to ensure that someone boards a vehicle at the right place.

The police have been reduced to doing patrols at night, to arrest innocent drunkards and the occasional knee-jerk road inspections. Overtly, they approve of the existence of Sungu Sungu and its shenanigans.

If left unchecked, they will be the next Mungiki, so deeply entrenched to tame. We cannot afford to pay taxes thrice; to the government, to security firms that are becoming rogue, and to vigilante groups.

At any given time, the police are mighty, and they have proven so severally. With the right motivation they can perform miracles. End corruption, educate the youth and give them jobs. Otherwise it is disaster unraveling in front of our eyes.

But as long as the police work with lanterns at road blocks at night, in 2010, it seems we have a long way.

Related Posts

They have launched an attack on Kenyans as usual. The 222 men and women, the self acclaimed saints of Kenya, the avowed masters of the trodden, name them, they are here again. They have decided the Oliver Twist style, to ask for more this umpteenth time. Granted, nobody wants anyone to work without pay, and commensurate pay at that, and in the same breath, nobody should outrageously carry home more than is their worth. Honestly, what is it that marks out our 222 men and women, over and above other legislators in the world; that makes them among the highest paid in the world?

These shameless fat cats have done nothing but maimed this wonderful country. Since independence, they have come in all shapes and sizes, and over the years have nothing to show for it. Yet in their deluded egos, they have raped the coffers of this great country, bludgeoning it into misery, while the rest of Kenya literally starves. Let us look at the average Kenyan earning, compared to the United States.

The average minimum pay in Kenya is approximately Kshs. 6,000 per month, which translates to about Kshs. 300 per day or the equivalent of Kshs. 37.50 per hour, considering the eight hour working day. This hourly wage does not buy 400g bread! In comparison, in America, the most powerful country in the world (not necessarily the largest economy), the average minimum pay is $ 8.00, which translates to $64.00 per day and $1,024 per month. The ruse is that after buying a loaf of bread for 0.99 cents, the American has $7.01 to spare from the hourly pay. Yet the American legislators earn a pale shadow of what our 222 men and women take home. What a shame?

There is no reasonable justification for the parliamentarians to dig multiple holes to fill up one. It is an act of blatant theft to increase your pay, in the guise of paying taxes from the resultant increase. Tax is an obligation the world over- it is the wind that turns the turbines of canon, even biblically, Jesus urged that we render unto Caesar what belongs to him; it is a divine decree and whoever subverts it in whatever manner, is in the least a thief, nay robber. It is worse when you steal or misappropriate to purport to do so. The parliamentarians owe us billions in taxes, and they better pay. What they are calling midterm taxation is in effect accumulated tax liability, which they should honourably accede to.

In decent places, people file taxes annually, and are eligible for tax refunds, or end up with tax liability. Kenya has caught up in principle, but not in practice. If for any reason our parliamentarians have not been filing their taxes, and are now in arrears in the millions, the logical position is to make individual private payment plans, spanning as long as the said money is completely paid off. Remember that HELB (Higher education loans board) for instance, subjects every sponsored graduate to more than 12 years of annual repayment. The parliamentarians too can make payment plans.

That parliamentarians carry a paltry earning home from the huge package, is extravagance, irresponsibility, and a matter for private consideration. Is it not enough to be bled to the marrow, only to be bothered about irresponsible, care-free individuals? How in all heaven do they think the Kshs. 6,000 per month Kenyans live? These Kenyans benefit from no loans, grants, medical covers, entertainment allowances, car loans, mortgages etcetera. In fact, many hardly understand the language of mortgage.

These bunch of disgraceful persons now answer our dilemma, as to why they are corrupt, knowing the recklessness with which they spend their flood of money, one can easily understand why they are in daily financial scandals. This is what they are whining over, none of them really wants an election today, because they have no guarantee of making it back to parliament. The smokescreen about paralyzing government operations is old fashioned, why does President Mwai Kibaki not hand them their request? Kenyans are waiting with bated breaths to put them where they belong, and even after that, still hound them until they pay all taxes due to the revenue kitty.

The truth of what is happening today is that these parliamentarians do not want a pay rise; one would be forgiven to imagine that it is a ploy to derail the Aug. 4. referendum; these people have at best been lukewarm to the new laws. Their silent bone of contention is not land and abortion as such, they are weary about the recall clause that would terminate their terms while they still have debts to pay. What with overdrawn salaries they are used to? Kenyans, this harem of robbers owe us money; let them pay back without using our vote mandate to rob from Peter, in order to pay Paul. Ask them to make good their “threat” to have an election – Kenyans will gleefully speak at the ballot box, once and for all this time.

Related Posts

When Allan Paton penned his novel, “Cry the Beloved Country,” it was hailed for clearly mirroring the racial divide against a downtrodden populace. For centuries, Africa was described by the garrulous west as the “Dark Continent” and least of all capable of sustaining a decent life, leave alone hosting the best of football in the world. The coming to Africa of the World Cup, coupled by the sterling hosting, have illuminated the continent in the eyes of diehard apologists of racial doubtfulness, but far from successful hosting, several issues still beg our indulgence.

The symbolic titihoya bird in South African fables as highlighted by Paton in his novel, was known to sing in high places where land was fertile, and food and water was abundant; in contrast, it was unable to sing in the valley where blacks lived in extreme poverty, suffering, exploitation and the reign of brutality. In fact, in the lowly valley, the titihoya did not sing, it rendered a forlorn cry! After independence, the titihoya definitely stopped singing or crying, and this year, because of the World Cup, it was fittingly replaced by the vuvuzela.

If the vuvuzela began by singing at the onset of this World Cup; it was in high spirits, and held the aspirations of a continent clamouring for a football liberation, the hype was that this was the time to awaken, arise, and exhibit a new dawn for which the song was deafening, to the point of inviting discomfiture from players of the west, but alas; ask anyone who still has honesty in them, and the truth is that the vuvuzela ended up crying, that forlorn cry of the hopeless, debased and beaten hands down. For sure, unlike the titihoya, the vuvuzela cries on, and here is why.

Football like all major disciplines, ceased to be a mere sporting activity years back. It is unfortunate that we in Africa still consider football as a social and sporting activity only. This is where our Achilles heel lies- period. This game is trapped in two major concerns- politics and money. Football is the biggest industry in countries where it has excelled, and governments have known the political reparations surrounding it. Governments in Europe and South America, have specific ministries if not whole government departments running football, which obviously means governmental sponsorship, and budgetary priority.

The governments where football is a political concern are usually also run transparently and are dully answerable to the people, which explains the astuteness with which the game is managed, add this to the vibrant economies, and you have a multi- billion industry. This is why transfers of football stars involve what in Africa, appear like obscene figures. The story of the late Pablo Escobar, the drug baron from Colombia, illuminated how big business (legal and illegal), can be tied to football, and shake political establishments.

In Africa, football is used as a launching pad to political leadership, after which the ladder is withdrawn and forgotten; remember Kenneth Matiba, Joab Omino, Alfred Sambu, Peter Kenneth, Adams Karauri and you can gauge Titus Kasuve’s intents among others, as football ails. Prospective politicians look to this popular sport as the reflection of their aspirations; they also hanker for the little money that comes from gate takings and the massive FIFA quotas.

Ironically, the seventh continent in the world called FIFA, readily overrides good intents like those of President Good Luck Jonathan of Nigeria, and it for a moment seems the official position of FIFA, to abet the crippling of a continent known for graft, bad governance and poverty. Care must be taken to confine Africa into the doldrums of underachievement, and disorganization is the fodder for it.

As a sport, football has attained a technical character that calls for serious business mindedness, sacrifice, national pride and selflessness. These qualities are hard to marry into one character, and here also, Africa lags. Many of our football stars thrive on the common rags to riches tales, and owe more allegiances to foreign clubs over their national teams. The stars are unfortunately the bench mark for budding footballers, who soon hanker for, and actually join the fray.

Look at our representative in South Africa this year. South Africa never fought to play in the final, granted this is the tradition, but was it a tested team? What type of trophy closet do they keep? Cameroon was banking on the old history of a lion that has been beaten so much, that there in nothing indomitable about them anymore, they must cease to fight only to qualify; they must match the desire with a corresponding deserving character. Ivory Coast, Algeria and Ghana, have imbued the European habit of dribbling, footwork and good ball passing, but unlike them, cannot finish.

At one time, watching Ghana and Ivory Coast, both trained by foreigners, one wonders if these coaches deliberately train our boys to do all that appertains to good football but on reaching the goal, teach them to blast directly onto an oncoming goalkeeper, pass the ball to him, blast wide, or pass it backward to the opposing defender! This does not in anyway support the blanket demand for local coaches. Some of our coaches have not grown enough, truth be said. In Kenya, we have recycled the same locals for so long that they will never change.

The African mentality of biased national team selection to meet sectional, political, tribal or club inclinations contribute to poor performance.

National pride comes with this sport, one cannot fail to loud the boys from Ghana for their resilience, but Gyan had scored the penalty before kicking it!, calmness, composure and level headedness, all culminate in the difference between wanting a win and needing it. The Uruguayans badly wanted the win, and the handball was one such gamble, it paid off, in war, everything is fair they say. Ghana for their part proved that all they needed was to make history, nothing about wanting the win, the proverbial pot breaks at the door steps they say.

Africa must quickly redefine football, know what it entails the world over, and adequately play in the same league; let us not only hanker for the sport, and lose sight of the politics and money that drive this business. Added to this must be a change in attitude, character, and purpose. With open wounds, Africa has some licking to do, we can now watch the “Kaburu” stride the Soccer City against Spain, for indeed, the vuvuzela cries on.

Related Posts

When a report in May revealed that the Ugandan government was concerned about reports that, the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) were reorganizing in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), there was ample reason for skepticism.

Whenever people hear about militias in eastern DRC causing problems, they generally think of the National Congress for the Defence of the People (CNDP), or the Democratic Liberation Forces of Rwanda (FDLR). The ADF is not given any consideration at all. It has been widely assumed that, the group was destroyed by Ugandan military action in 2004, and by Operation North Night, a joint Military Operation by United Nations Mission in the Congo (MONUC) and the Congolese army. After that, there were reports of a clash between the UPDF and the ADF in March of 2007.

One might ask if there is reason to be cautious regarding reports of the ADF reforming in the DRC. Recent history shows that in previous elections Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni, has used threats of attacks by the ADF as planks in his reelection campaign. In 2005, the President sought the approval of the Bush administration to launch another invasion of the Congo, to deal with this perceived threat against Uganda.

Like the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA), which is currently creating havoc in the Central African Republic and Sudan at this time, the ADF seeks to overthrow the Museveni government. However, the powerbases of these two militias are from different parts of Uganda. Traditionally, the LRA draws its power from the Acholi dominated northern region. The ADF which has a core base that is Muslim, draws its support from the western part of the country.

Currently, MONUC has an operation called Amani Leo, active in the eastern part of the Congo. As I wrote this piece, the Congolese army released casualty reports that revealed that at least 60 Rwandan and Ugandan insurgents, were killed during operations conducted this month. So it appears that even though MONUC has started the process to withdraw from the Congo, the problems do not appear to have been resolved.

When reports of the reemergence of the ADF started coming, there was a train of thought that garnered my interest. There were statements that indicated that, the group would not be seen as a threat to the oil industry that is developing in both the Congo and Uganda. It is interesting to see why such logic would be used at this time. One possible answer is that there is not enough money, to be made in this industry yet. Or it appears that other activities such as diamond and weapons smuggling, are more lucrative at this time.

Another train of thought has indicated that the ADF is another route for Al-Shaabab or another Al-Qaeda aligned group to launch operations against Uganda for its efforts in Somalia. We cannot ignore this. Reported efforts by Al-Qaeda to get access to uranium in the DRC back in 2003 lend some credence to this thought. Still another train of thought could be that there may be a role by Sudan in this.

Earlier this month, there were reports of a clash between the Ugandan Peoples Defense Forces (UPDF) and the Janjaweed in the Central African Republic. Tensions have been simmering between Uganda and Sudan, over several factors, including the aforementioned LRA and the recently concluded and controversial presidential elections in April. In the past, Sudan has supported the ADF, according to Ugandan military sources, to offset the efforts by Uganda to support the independence efforts of southern Sudan.

So why these reports? Part of the reason is political posturing in Kampala. But other factors are at play as well. Unconfirmed reports indicate that, Al-Qaeda is trying to establish links with the ADF again. It could be that there are parties seeking chaos to strengthen their own position in the region, or amongst the great powers. Whatever it is, this is a dangerous precedent being set for the region. And does anyone care what chaos that will bring?

Related Posts

If you want silence, find a library. That was the cheeky answer given to a football fan during a radio talk show on BBC Five Live when he called for a ban of the vuvuzela during the World Cup matches. The vuvuzela is becoming just as much a talking point as the World Cup matches. Opinion remains almost evenly divided. The instrument’s proponents argue it is a cultural tool that celebrates football in South Africa, while those against it complain about its monotonous, annoying and ‘nonsensical’ sound.

But the vuvuzela debate is much more than just an argument about sound. The debate is in many ways layered with cultural and political narratives all contesting for legitimacy. During the Confederations Cup, one recalls FIFA Boss Sepp Blatter’s comment that it would be wrong to ’Europeanise’ the World Cup in South Africa. This was after some European players and managers called for the banning of the vuvuzela. Blatter’s statement was unambiguous. It silently invoked the unspoken cultural and political tensions that routinely characterise this tournament. The vuvuzela effectively became a site upon which a politico-cultural war was being fought.

The pro-vuvuzela lobby argued that other countries have never dictated ways in which European hosts support their teams in past tournaments. Revising this trend, in their opinion, was something akin to legitimising a colonial master narrative where the ‘standard’ was European. The anti-vuvuzela lobby on their part argue that the cultural excuse for the vuvuzela at football matches is a fabricated mythology. Which it is, but that is only one side of the argument. It is true that the vuvuzela’s use particularly within the context of sport is not an old practice. Indeed, it is argued that their use was only actively encouraged in the 1990s when attendance at football matches began to flag. The noise would effectively create the kind atmosphere as to render the empty seats ‘occupied’. But should this recent adoption of the instrument delegitimise its cultural authenticity? To argue affirmatively would be to miss the point. Culture is not immutable. Cultural practices are not fossilised and frozen in time. They are constantly in flux and change according to prevailing circumstances. The vuvuzela’s appropriation in sports and in football matches in particular is no less cultural than the chanting, clapping and singing at premier league matches in England.

But there are other interesting issues the vuvuzela debate brings up. It is mainly TV pundits and TV audiences who have been at the forefront of the anti-vuvuzela lobby. The pundits have argued that commentating on matches above the din of the vuvuzela is nearly impossible. While the problem is legitimate, the excuse is feeble. Getting a clean feed free of the vuvuzela sound is not beyond the broadcasters. That technology is in fact very basic. Unfortunately, TV is a medium that cannot be ignored as it is arguably the biggest money spinner for FIFA. If the TV bosses are unanimous in their opposition to the vuvuzela, there’s little doubt FIFA and the local organisers will have to rethink their position. FIFA is already threatening a ban if the vuvuzelas are played during the singing of the national anthems or thrown on to the pitch. But should FIFA pander to television, it would also make a mockery of the organisation’s talk about using football to celebrate cultural diversity.

However, the very fact that FIFA is listening to the anti-vuvuzela television lobby does in fact point to what might very well be a redefinition of the idea of sporting ‘cultures’. The television audience is now a ‘cultural’ group whose interests are just as important as other cultures. It might be TV banditry to some but it would appear the evolution of the game into a mediated transnational money spinning TV spectacle now gives this group space among other world cultures.

But any decision taken by FIFA to please TV bosses and audiences will have far reaching implications. In case there is an embargo on the vuvuzela, what will happen during the next World Cup in Brazil? Will samba be considered too graphic for the TV audience? And what happens when England wins the right to host the 2018 world cup? Will the chanting and singing of obscenities be considered distasteful? For an organisation that has fought against the politicisation of the game, FIFA stands at a cross-road. If it bans the vuvuzela, there are fears the modern game will in fact be anything but modern. It will be a sport in which old cultural and political wars are fought, where prejudice and domination thrive under the guise of technology. But herein also lies an interesting contradiction. With populations growing far more rapidly in the developing world and the uptake of technology even quicker there than in the developed world, as has been seen with the case of the mobile phone, perhaps it will be the developing world’s TV audience who will be defining the character of future World Cup tournaments? And that would probably mean more and louder vuvuzelas. There are no easy answers to the vuvuzela debate. What is clear is that it is a debate that goes beyond football. Whatever FIFA decides, it will be navigating very stormy waters. Perhaps we should just let the vuvuzela be!

Related Posts

Whistling in the dark is considered a grand taboo in most African communities, and the South Mugirango by election was a whistle in the dark. The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) brigade, led by none other than Prime Minister Raila Odinga, the Party of National Unity, and their sympathizers in ODM, as well as many nondescript persons, all participated in whistling in the political darkness, which is soon going to dominate the Kenyan political landscape.

Those who were in the lookout will remember that the winner of this by election, now Hon. Manson Nyamweya, was a victim of ODM intra-party rigging machinery in 2007. The ODM party robbed Nyamweya the right to fairly participate in party nominations, by stealing it for their “thankless renegade” Omingo Magara. As if ODM memory power is rusted, the very Nyamweya that they rejected succeeded in petitioning the election of Omingo Magara. Forget that Magara in characteristic fashion of people, who benefit without cutting a sweat, doffed the party, fearing that a competitive party nomination process would kick him out. In fact, Magara had been used to getting through, without competitive means, and therefore ran to a party of that ilk.

The most intriguing point is that, it took the people of South Mugirango to make the loudest political statement ever; that Kenyans have grown, and will not dance to the whims of party and tribal warlords; they scoffed at political machines and bravado. They also stated that politics is local; a proof that Kenyans have seen enough of, and are no longer mesmerized by politician’s show of might; through choppers, intimidation, and empty rhetoric’s, laden with promises of undelivered freebies.

The lesson from South Mugirango was that parties and their leaders, should respect the democratic principles enshrined in their own manifestos, deal fairly with nomination processes, and depart from political patronage. True, the winner of this by election did benefit from the age old clan considerations that still instruct Kenyan politics. Yet our erstwhile politicians should have seen through this, and redressed their technical weaknesses. What impact did the two parties, replete with big wigs, some literally camping in Mugirango, have on the electorate? Vain whistling in the dark!

This brings in various shades of reasoning. Kalonzo Musyoka, Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto, hoped to use this by election as a dress rehearsal for their 2012, (KKK). They needed to be ashamed of backing a person, whose election credibility was dubious, unless of course they wished to tell Kenyans what type of outfit they profess-political riff raff. That Ruto openly backed Magara on a ticket, other than his own party’s- from which he ought to, by principle now resign- shows the political villain, and dishonest mind that he is.

As for the PM, did he ever hear of once bitten twice shy? He is catching the foot and mouth political disease, of former President Daniel Moi. Must a politician of his caliber and stature, denigrate himself by meddling in petty issues like a by election, fathomed by his party miscalculation hitherto uncorrected? Even with political think tanks from ODM, led by James Orengo himself, the flop came with a thud. What political advice did they give their party leader?

Times are many, that the style by President Mwai Kibaki, does save his face, even if he did have a preference in Mugirango, he had a face to save, by commissioning trusted lieutenants and foot soldiers instead. The Prime Minister must learn to avoid belittling himself; he should rely on “watu wa mikono” sometimes, and play high politics even from the grass roots. When you become too ordinary, you become familiar, and it breeds contempt.

Odinga has emerged as the most visible politician of his age in Kenya. That he aptly bridged the political gap preceded by his late father; the doyen of Kenya’s opposition politics- Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, cannot be gainsaid. Odinga became a self made politician by his independence of mind, sometimes at variance with his late father, for which he has left indelible imprints on the Kenyan political map.

Odinga has participated at every stage of the reform process, and the opening of political space in Kenya. Credit be given when and where it is due, he is the most visible, impactful ,and popular politician among the Kenyan masses today-hands down, he is the man to beat, and has caused a disease called Railaphobia among his opponents.

However, whatever political capital Odinga has garnered, should not go to his head and blind him. Whispers abound about his preference for his family in top notch appointments. Sometimes surrounding oneself with political liabilities in the name of henchmen, can be the bane of aspirations. What political worth does Oburu Odinga bring to the fold? He is a vegetable of a politician; riding in the wave of his late father and now his younger brother. Other blood relationships in Odinga favours are exemplified in his cousin, Jakoyo Midiwo, Member of Parliament for Gem and Gor Sungu a legislator from Kisumu East, who is the son-in-law to Oburu.

The grapevine is rife that some high flying appointments have been made on the basis of familial preferences, particularly for Kenya’s lead diplomat to the United States of America. Now, Odinga should not imagine that his political province will be bequeathed to Fidel on a silver platter, times have changed, and a new open-minded generation is emerging. He has to take note that his fortunes stem from our largesse. His late father ruled Kenyan politics, without governing Kenya, history repeats itself and that would be bad history for him.

Related Posts

Recently, the United States Vice-President Joe Biden made an official trip to Africa. One of his stops was South Africa, where he attended the opening of the FIFA World Cup tournament. Biden also visited Nairobi, Kenya’s capitol city. Hot on his heels, some blasts, of what is largely speculated as grenades, rocked the city. It was Uhuru Park, the site of a prayer crusade, turned political rally for those opposed to the draft constitution currently being contested.

Biden’s visit had three objectives: First, to pass on a message from President Barack Obama to the leader of South Sudan, Salva Kiir. Secondly, to address the deteriorating situation in Somalia and finally, to show support for Kenya’s draft law.

As I noted on Confused Eagle, there is an interesting money trail originating from the US to Kenya in respect to the draft in question. The Obama administration is supporting the draft, which has a clause for “access to reproductive health” by providing funds through the United States Agency for International Development.

To the religious right, these are code words for abortion. Some US-based groups have reportedly been supporting the opponents of the proposed law, violating the Siljander Amendment in the process.The amendment stipulates that under no circumstance, whatsoever, should American foreign aid be used in any abortion debate.

Another topic that has caused problems for the administration has been Sudan. The aftermath of the April elections has been tragic and interesting; replete with increased militia activities, and frustration in congress regarding the actions before the plebiscite.

The peace talks in Doha are on the verge of collapse, according to reports. There have been clashes in Darfur between the Sudanese Armed Forces and Justice and Equality Movement. There is instability as well in Southern Sudan. Some militias in the south have been active against the government of southern Sudan as well. Curiously, Darfur was not mentioned as a national security interest of the US, but genocide was.

Renewed proxy war between Uganda and Sudan could further complicate policy execution. In the past, the Sudanese government has armed, and in some cases, used the Lord’s Resistance Army as a surrogate force to exert its influence in the region. The Ugandans have also supported those in the south, who are seeking independence from the north. This week, there were reports of clashes between the Janjaweed and the Ugandan military in the Central Africa Republic (CAR).

This shows the weakness of the current government in Bangui, CAR. Various forces are now operating on their soil, conducting operations unhindered. It also could be a reaction by Khartoum to lash out at those critical of the April polls. Finally, it could be a ploy by President Yoweri Museveni to drum up support for his 2011 reelection bid. In the past, he has used instability in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) as a campaign platform, so this is not a new tactic on his part.

The situation in Somalia has not changed much. Mogadishu is still a battleground, and the Islamist insurgency is still creating problems for the weak western-backed government.

All in all, these situations present long-term issues for the Obama administration. The criticism, regarding the handling of Sudan, has raised alarm and anger amongst the activist community. As at this time, there is no official response from the administration regarding the bombing in Nairobi. Very little has been said regarding Somalia except that, like in Sudan, and in the DRC, there is concern regarding child soldiers.

The Obama administration sent Biden to Africa to show that the US is concerned with the continent’s current events, but they might have missed the mark.

Related Posts

Boarding schools can provide lasting experiences, at least by their encompassing every shade of human society. One particularly memorable incident was about a wizard among the students, who knowing he would be in jeopardy if discovered, devised a ploy. One day, he used a sharp razor, to inflict a slight cut on his body. Come morning, he was in tears, appealing for sympathy from every student, who ended up blaming an unknown night-runner. The following night, the same wizard stealthily walked across the dark dormitory, and inflicted a deep cut on another student. Obviously, he would be the last person to be suspected.

The analogy above perfectly fits the Uhuru Park incident the other day, where the “No” camp held their meeting. First however, the resultant mayhem is one to strongly condemn, irrespective of who the orchestrators were. If this was a plot by the “Yes” team, in which side the government is largely stacked, the glare of humanity, decency and propriety, cries in their face. It is rather late in the day, for acts of insensitivity, and wanton retribution, based on differing opinion to pervade our midst. Whoever the organizers, innocent wananchi should not be exposed as mere baits for votes at the end of politicians’ long fishing lines.

The way to redress this unfortunate happening is to delve deep into investigations, and expeditiously reveal the perpetrators of such nefarious behaviour. Here is where the government should seek to assure the public of protection, and fairness. Woe upon the government, if it has a hand in this dastardly act. The tactics are old fashioned, and ugly to say the least. Let there be honest, fair, firm and balanced approach to incidents that lead to bloodshed, and loss of life.

The other side to the analogy begs the credibility of the organizers of the “No” rally. As much as they were quick to know whom to blame, a few queries tie their hands. It is curious that the ugly incident occurred well after the allocated time. If an outsider wished to disrupt the proceedings of this meeting; how, in God’s name, did they conveniently wait for an after-hours opportunity? They would well have executed the sin in the allocated time. There are actually three sides to the coin, and the grey side compels conjuncture.

Kenya has reached a stage whereby, people must be held responsible for inefficiency, sins of omission and commission. The rules of liability must be well understood, interpreted and respected. When one organizes a licensed rally, they should stick to the allocated time, lest they put to jeopardy, the people they invite to attend their business. This is why the organizers of the Uhuru Park rally, are suspects number one, in this puzzle. The rule of responsibility by commission and omission ties their hands.

Even more disconcerting is the fact that there was a warning blast, to which the preacher who extended that fateful stay, responded that it should be ignored. Swift response would have saved lives.

One would be forgiven to smell the rat, in the cheapness with which this act was designed and delivered. The government has in the past blatantly come out, whenever they had beef with any opposition, and they leave no iota of doubt, as to their intention. Again, the referendum vote is largely decided, it is a naked fact that the “No” are back peddling, and such an outfit is not the “threat” to expend dirty tactics on. This is unless of course, the design is a “No” ploy, to cry out loud, to attract sympathy by acclaim.

The faceless naysayers are products of “no holds barred” style of operation, and in discreet fashion, have tried several besmirching antics to sway opinion. Remember the addition of clauses at the government printer; they are obviously sulking at every opportunity, war mongering (remember the diabolical utterances of Fred Kapondi and Wilfred Machage) and now this Uhuru Park incident. One needs not hold a degree in filthy politics, to decipher this dormitory like mischief.

Again, here is where the government is expected to put its feet down, to deal with untoward traits, and utterances. This is the time President Mwai Kibaki, and Prime Minister Raila Odinga, must exhibit leadership. They ought to interpret the law meticulously, and resolve the recklessness, now bedeviling their brigade- that is what defending the constitution, for which Kibaki took a most sacred oath, is all about. Everyone knows that the cabinet is reeking filthy with moles, whose foot hold in bureaucracy, lends them the leeway to pervert justice and order.

Furthermore, in the matter of the referendum, many of them have eyes trained on 2012, at the expense of the lives, security and well being of the common mwananchi. The two principles know this fact, and are also aware of the people camouflaging in the day, but seething with the venom of selfish parochial political aspirations, at the expense of the wider Kenyan good. Need we intone that, posterity awaits all stakeholders? But before then, the Uhuru Park childishness must be condemned in breaths both deep and final.

Related Posts

Theodore Roosevelt, one time American President, told American diplomats to coo like doves, but carry big sticks. He was advocating for tough diplomacy; laced with an element of bullying. In some cases, it is referred to as the carrot and stick policy. It pervades high brand politics and that is where we head in this age.

In his meetings with President Mwai Kibaki, and Prime Minister Raila Odinga, American Vice- President Joe Biden cooed like a dove. He was warm, positive, and exuded a lot of optimism, but with caveats. He promised America’s alms to Kenya, subject to many conditions. He pitched for reform, and even thinly veiled his endorsement of Kenya’s new constitution. Those averse to honesty, expected a non-commital attitude from Biden and America, there can be no two ways here, a reform-minded ally, is definitely America’s to play along with. One can only put their money where the mouth is.

In a sense, President Barack Obama realizes that United State’s mission in Africa, particularly as far as stamping out Islamists goes, is heavily hinged on Kenya’s ability to run effective counterterrorism programs, and the capacity to efficiently gather actionable intelligence. Kenya badly needs to shed the image of a safe haven for terrorists, many of them masquerading as refugees, and purchasing inch by inch all aspects of her economy with blood money.

The wild spread of Al-Shabaab, an offshoot of Al-Qaeda, with a strong base in Somalia, makes Kenya ever so important in America’s foreign policy. The growth of piracy, and terror groups in Somalia, is presenting security challenges in Kenya. Over and above, they are providing training grounds for agents of terror. This effectively ties Kenya’s fate to that of America. The promise by America to help Kenya secure its borders, is not to serve Kenya’s interest alone, but rather, to help the world at large- headed by the US- in the fight against terrorism and insurgency.

To have adequate response to the terror and piracy situation, secure borders alone will not do. Kenya must engage not only well trained army generals, but also fine brained forensic accountants. These accountants’ port of call, must be the 24-hour foreign exchange (FOREX) bureaus, that sprout in Eastleigh by the day.

This is an emotive issue, and raises hell among Kenyan Somalis, every time it arises. But the business of government is not public relations, rather it is public safety. Kenya cannot afford to turn the other cheek, as insurgents nimble at her sovereignity, all because they are monied.

The forensic accountants, must investigate the flow of money through these FOREX bureaus for two reasons. One, is that they hurt the local currency, and lead to instability of the shilling, thereby causing undue hardship to the hard-working Kenyans, whose money loses value in the process. Secondly, and more important, these bureaus provide a laundering channel, through which piracy money is cleansed and legitimized. Thus, parliament too has to come up with some ingenious way, to ensure that money from illegitimate sources, does not flow through the economy unhindered. There is the fear though, that these financial hegemonic deals, are tied to those iredeemably bent on selling the country-Kenya; till we now have a Somalia in Kenya! (read Eastleigh).

Biden also tied increased opportunities, driven by higher direct foreign investments by Americans, to reforms. Understandably, no one wants to put money in an economy whose institutions are weak, for that presents big political risk. Corruption too, increases the costs of doing business. Effectively, having strong structures with good measure of accountability, is attractive to investment; and that cannot be gainsaid. But we do not want these reforms for America, we want them for ourselves. If in so doing, we attract more foreign direct investments, well and good, but primarily, we must see how these reforms align with our hopes and aspirations.

Much as it is politically, and diplomatically incorrect for Biden to say so, Kenya is America’s gateway to East and Central Africa. For this reason, America has deep interest in Kenya to facilitate its exploits in the region.This is not selfsame interest, it is rooted in a bipartisan concern for a collective generational prosperity.

For Obama, reform in Kenya is not only a matter of policy, but also personal. His father, the senior Obama, was a government employee who was constantly stifled by a system that tolerated cronyism, and tribalism. In a sense, he is seeing Kenya go full cycle, and honoring his father in death, by encouraging the creation of situations, that would have bettered his (senior Obama) fortunes.

The South Sudan referendum is a big fat issue in this visit. The region overflows with resources; both precious metals and oil. America and Kenya are interested, and so are Chad and china. One Sudan is good for China and Chad, whereas an independent Southern Sudan is good for US and Kenya; and that is why a meeting between Salva Kiir and Biden was critical.

Whether Kenya ends up hosting a command post for drone attacks against Al-Shabaab, and pirates in the ungovernable Somalia, or logistical base for war aid to Southern Sudan; in the event that peaceful secession aborts, will remain classified. We can only speculate.

Related Posts

When Higher Education Minister William Ruto speaks on the draft constitution, you get the sense that he is former President Daniel Moi clone, a handmaid; or better still, driven more by the desire to sell his “No” position, than to market the contentious issues. The rest of his sight on 2012 is split between the ambiguous and the tellingly quiet. It is politics by the Moi book. Ruto has aptly mastered the politics of deceit, deliberate ping ponging, and speaking from the corner of his mouth, as his eyes roll in complex fashion.

It is amazing how with a straight face, Ruto now “clamours” for his “fellow poor”, bashes the government, for intending to “waste” public funds on the referendum, and for not respecting the policy of separation of powers. Perhaps what Ruto is suggesting, is a bloating of the economy, like they did with Moi in 1992, when they printed and distributed money like “maandazi”.

This erstwhile demagogue makes one wonder at his intellectual sanity, propriety and honesty, for by the present constitution, Ruto is a member of parliament, which is the legislative arm of government; he is also a cabinet minister, meaning he is in the executive, and he will not resign for holding divergent views, or for flouting the same separation of powers. Talk of -hearken what I say, not what I do-, it is politics Kenya style.

But how did Ruto end up here? The primary reason Ruto proposed the pure presidential system in the constitutional review, is that he saw it as the final tip of the iceberg that will sink the mega MV Raila Odinga 2012- his position was informed by incisive desire to revenge. Below that pure presidential system, lay an elaborate plan by Moi’s blue-eyed boys, garbed in the Kalenjin, Kikuyu, Kamba (KKK) outfit. In their minds, it was Odinga’s frozen waterloo. They thought Odinga would wait until the waterloo defrosted, before he attempted to cross it. But were they so sure?

While Ruto and his corner men were scheming, they lost sight of cardinal factors governing Kenyan politics, one is either a reformist, or a conservative, and their call is bigger than any alliance. The dividing line in political thought in Kenya is drawn by whom you are able to bring to the table of progression, through the grass roots, and how long they are willing to sit at that table, for whatever the agenda.

More than a decade ago, as I prepared to earn my bachelors degree in business at Kenyatta University, Dr. John Yabs, a well-spoken professor of strategic management, with business knowledge that rivaled Google- metaphorically speaking, drummed one thing over, and over in our minds. “When attacking a market leader, be prepared for retaliation. Because leaders have the knack to retaliate, in a way that can obliterate your strategy, and possibly force your organization to wind up.” This is the point that the KKK, could have missed.

Odinga, arguably, is without doubt, a political leader in the popularity turf. To a large extent, he is a populist. He is also an accomplished strategist. That is why in every constituency, he prepares an alternate to the incumbent Member of Parliament, and it excites them to chagrin. He is the master of “plan Bs.”

The strategic mistake by Ruto, and his band of “2012 secessionists, united against Odinga” in Naivasha, was their certainty that, Odinga would take nothing less than a parliamentary system. Sadly, Odinga never works like that. He hates to be predictable, he thrives in mysticism, and enjoys front running. These people have studied Odinga long enough, and should have been more cautious. So when they eagerly waited for Odinga, to call a press conference to protest, he did not only accept the proposal, but owned it, and went ahead to applaud the Naivasha team for the incredible job. By so doing, Odinga took the “Yes” ship, sat in the captain’s seat, and made the rules for the sail. How were his “fixers” going to be comfortable as crew?

With that, the “No” family was born- though some are content being bastards in the “Yes” family, via Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta, and Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka- very high-ranking PNU brigade indeed. The energy with which Kalonzo, and Kenyatta are brooding, is clear evidence they have been utterly scuttled, and are openly sobbing their “No” in the high corridors of “Yes”.

So when KKK set the “No” ship for Odinga to ride in, they lost sight of the leader’s capacity to retaliate. Some of the options should have been, to merge with the leader in the event that their plan is torpedoed, or in the event that Odinga wittingly took up their ship; because that is the possibility that came to pass. The bitter truth is that, while the likes of Ruto, Kenyatta and Kalonzo have eyes trained on 2012, while doing referendum business, the actual election will be a difficult ball game, and they need some tuition, on strategic positioning to avoid the political limbo now lurking in their midst.

Related Posts

Dear Daniel,

Allow me to intrude into your not so eventless retirement. I address you in the first name to foster breakdown of authority- that way I can go full throttle.

I know that you were born a workaholic, and you must have vowed never to retire, nay rest, until you cross over to the land of the living dead and the spirits. Good for you, however, being on the payroll of government retirees, you continue to live large by drawing a helping from the very institution you choked to near demise. You are interfering with the smooth functioning of the very hand that feeds you. The other day, you reckoned that your mouth did not retire, which begs the question, which part of your anatomy did you use as a prop, or stock in trade? I will tell you – your mouth!

Like every Kenyan, you cannot be denied that indivisible and inalienable human right-  the right to free speech. However, yours has outstretched the mandate. First, remember that Kenyans bore the brunt of your academic paranoia- many are those instances when people held their breaths, whenever you interacted among the so called peers on the world stage. People quietly wondered how this naive and innocuous personality, whose tongue bled every time he expressed himself, convinced the great Nation of Kenya to rule over them. It also gave us a false brand, for you being the proverbial one-eyed man; they obviously saw you as leading the blind.

Moreover, you seemed to have taken cognizance of this fact, and to repudiate for it, you spent quality time in your tenure, gagging intellectual personalities. Many academicians lived in exile, because your hegemony was insensitive to learned and inquisitive Kenyans.

To entrench dislike for the learned, you instituted the national youth service, with the intent to transform fine young minds into savages. You rewarded prospective university students, by handing them to standard eight drop outs to patronize, demean and brutalize them. You knew that a people over brutalized, usually become brutal themselves, and this gave you license to clobber, and ravage them- both intellectually and socially.You gleefully oversaw public resentment for them – and hated anything genuinely intellectual!

Academic institutions during your tenure were superfluous corridors of sycophants and caged people; you infiltrated universities with government spies, and created tribal fiefdoms (district organizations), as a perpetuation of the colonial divide and rule, which deeply entrenched tribalism to-date. If Kenyans are fragile, and prone to skirmishes, it was planted and watered by you. This means, you are the last person with the fiber to lecture on divisive politics, and bloodshed.

Remember the district focus for rural development? This was your ploy to confine Kenyans into their tribal havens, as you aggressively developed Rift Valley, and kept other Kenyans from the province. The best equipped, and staffed schools complete with modern infrastructure, were located in Rift Valley. I know you have forgotten that we know why Moi University became the second University in Kenya, even when Kenyatta University had been ready way before. “Kaeni vivyo hivyo” summarized your desire to annihilate other regions to political, academic, and economic oblivion.

The constitution you do not want changed, was your weapon against Kenyans; did anyone oppose your turning Kenya into a one-party dictatorship? Could they? You established dungeons, instituted arbitrary arrests, detention without trial, and political murders; you trained the most effective assassins, even as you kept an “incompetent” police force. The political space was only enough for you, and your cronies, mostly from Rift Valley. Chances are; you are not used to a political system where tranquility is the norm. Had anyone dared oppose your government, they would long have been history. Now you enjoy what you verily denied others.

Secondly, nobody raped our economy more than you did; remember the biggest financial scandals were crafted under your watch, and with your blessings. We still remember how you printed money, and blotted our economy to-date, as you strived to win rigged elections. Your master fixers still abound in the likes of William Ruto and Cyrus Jirongo.They are the shameless political doubles- miscreants licensed to deceit. That now they want us to believe after you apportioned them colossal land and property, all belonging to the public, that they are still poor, is sickening. Oh God!

I know how hard it is to come to terms with lost raw power, and it can happen that as you sleep, nightmares delude you into thinking that you are still in charge. Twenty four years at the helm, lording over patient and trusting people, made you dream the wakeful slumber of an immortal. True, several moles still dot our government, who nimble at every step of progression Kenya makes. It will surely cost us time and money, to white wash your influence in government. Nevertheless, I have some advice for you.

Mr. Moi, your political peers are resting easy either in their physical, or spiritual state. God forbid, I almost asked him to transition you to a place, where you would let the Kenyan millions decide their destiny in peace. The thing is that, you have never been an honest person. I sat down and asked forgiveness for unchristian thoughts about you, and instead asked God to let you live long enough, to see in this world, what the other world would not privilege you. I prayed that you stay long enough, to participate in atoning for the generational sins you committed against our country. This atonement will come whether you like it or not, you are about to watch a classic movie in Kenya, it is called- “The Real Kenya.”

Do not rub your eyes to any redness, it is real, all stolen land, money, and opportunities, will be recovered, even from you. No remorse, no recourse. Equitable distribution of resources will come to pass, and Kenyans will agree; you are already enjoying the freedom to speak, lie and threaten, which will be elevated to political honesty, diligence and propriety. All these will unfold before your now tainted eyes, and mine is to ask you to hold tight onto your seat, in the theatre of unstoppable Kenya, until the movie culminates into a new phase- “Clean Governance” that would be the climax.

Yours irredeemably progressive,
Lawrence Chiteri.

Related Posts