Central Africa post Sudan elections

By SCOTT A MORGAN
Published April 22, 2010

The elections in Sudan have been concluded. In the views of several people the outcome was already decided before the first ballot was cast. Omar Al-Bashir has been reelected President of Sudan. This means that the future regional stability of Central Africa is now in jeopardy.

It has also been widely held by several governments, including the United States that this was a preliminary run. The real elections will be in January 2011, when Southern Sudan will get a choice either to secede, or remain part of the larger Sudan. Already, this has some people worried.

The political environment heading into this critical election could not be more riddled with tension. Although the African Union and the Arab League confirmed that the elections were free and fair, the three states, which guarantee that the Comprehensive Peace Accord (CPA) is followed (US, UK and Norway) found that the polls were rife with irregularities. South Africa stated that the electoral process seemed to be rushed in their opinion.

One area of concern was Darfur, where a couple of interesting events occurred. Four South African peacekeepers were kidnapped hours after the polls opened, and were held throughout the polling. Some of the most glaring problems with the vote did occur in Darfur. On April 19,  it was announced that renewed clashes between the Sudanese military and the Abdel Wahid faction of the Sudan Liberation Army, were disrupting aid supplies to an estimated 100,000 refugees.

This is not the only infraction by the Sudanese military at this time. There are reports that the Sudanese army has moved into the Blue Nile state as well. Blue Nile, which is close to Ethiopia, was the scene of some of the most violent fighting during the 1983 to 2005 war. Both factions have been consulting with Prime Minister Meles Zenawi of Ethiopia since the election started.

Already, diplomacy has begun in the region. President Idriss Deby of Chad has announced that his government would not support the referendum on Southern independence under any circumstance whatsoever. He would prefer to have Sudan remain as one entity. His stated logic is that he fears that an insurgency that operated in the 1980s would resume again. This statement is causing some consternation among the people of Southern Sudan.

Another country that is watching this situation develop is the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), which has been plagued by war conducted by regional militias and its neighbors since the 1990s, and is very rich in natural resources. There have been some calls for the DRC to be partitioned as well. How the referendum in Southern Sudan goes could impact the future of DRC.

With the benefit of analysis, one sad prognosis is potent. The situation in Central Africa is very similar to that in the Balkans in 1914. Countries having designs on their neighbors and supporting opposition movements, both legitimate political actors and irregular forces bent on exploiting people. There are elections occurring in Rwanda this summer. The actions of that government toward the opposition, and the independent media outlets are an additional source of tension.

Before the referendum, there will be an effort at posturing by various actors in the region and at the United Nations. There will be calls to delay the referendum. Rebel groups in Darfur and other countries in Africa will find their actions under scrutiny as well in various capitals, including Washington, Beijing and Canberra.

As soon as the results are released, we can start the clock for the real elections in Sudan. It will be as the Chinese say, “Interesting times.”

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