Somalia a threat to East Africa’s federation

By: SYLVESTER OLUOCH of the EAiF Staff
Published July 1, 2009

Somalia has been a restless, almost lawless, nation since the days of cold war. And even after the Nairobi peace deal, the unrest rages on.

The Islamic extremists who have been troubling the nascent government could have opened themselves to bigger onslaughts in recent days. The threat by some rebels to strike Nairobi could end badly. The Islamists claimed that their motivation to hit Nairobi draws from Kenya’s support of Somalia’s federal government.

Nairobi is not limited to Kenyan interests. Nairobi is the East African hub and serves as the Western interests’ gateway to East and Central Africa. What are the implications of interrupting Nairobi operations? This will mean stifling economic activities of the East and Central African regions, both industrially and logistically.

Following the threat, Kenya has put 500,000 reserve troops on alert and beefed up security at the Somalia – Kenya boarder. Kenya has also recalled soldiers on leave and cancelled pending leaves. This should send a warning to the insurgents that this is a high stakes game. In the very period, the United States of America has sent military hardware- heavy war machinery- to Somalia’s federal government.

The actions by Kenya and the U.S. are in concert, literally. Both countries have critical interests to protect and by extension, all peace loving nations and their citizens have interests in this war. Kenya can no longer afford a neighbor that pumps refugees into its land day in, day out. America on the other hand is weary that the fall of Mogadishu will create another safe haven for Al Qaeda. This does not only threaten America, but global peace.

Logistically, most heavy industrial imports into Uganda, Northern Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, and some parts of Democratic Republic of Congo offload at Kilindini Habour, Mombasa and then ship by road through Nairobi.

Economically, most of the region’s light industry products are manufactured in Nairobi and exported by road. Nairobi, therefore, is an important city for the livelihoods of almost 100 million people. How Somalia agitators expect this population to watch them cut off their livelihood without push back is a question that needs deeper thought on their end than from the respondents.

Also of shared interest between the U.S. and Kenya in line with Somalia’s instability is the growing piracy in Somalia waters that is making the Kenyan Coastal strip less safe. Getting a way to reign in and round up the war mongers, especially those encroaching on its boarders, should and shall be one of Kenya’s top priorities.

As for the U.S, by all means it will be naïve to delink piracy from terrorism, and U.S will not make that mistake. The pirates make quick money and lots of it. But their fortune never improves. This is an indication that there are grand masters directing the operations from safe zones using satellite phones. And because ransom money is paid in cash, it makes it easier to finance other crimes against humanity without trace.

Piracy, terrorism and clan wars in Somalia are tightly intertwined. This very ransom money, almost certainly, finds its way to financing the decades old instability in Somalia.

Though fighting in Somalia had its roots in the cold war, it has very much taken a life of its own, fuelled mainly by greed of heavily bearded warlords. Underdevelopment, especially lack of education among its youths, and the alienation of women from positions of responsibility has complicated any efforts at regaining sanity of a nation gone mad on itself.

Displaced Somalis put excessive pressure on its neighbors, especially Kenya, Uganda and Ethiopia. To make much headway in terms of social amenities and economic progress, East Africa has to find a way of dealing with the Somalia situation. If Somalia runs wild, the region will be stressed with disease outbreaks stemming from lack of health infrastructure at the refugee camps and increased importation costs due to higher security requirements in the Indian Ocean waters.

With all indications that Nairobi is this critical to economics and logistics, the rallying call to attack Nairobi is likely to draw reactions that will greatly weaken the insurgents. If federal government of Somalia puts up a good fight in Mogadishu and the rebels get a strong push from the Kenyan end, the insurgents’ ambition may be short-lived.

Even more important is to device a way to ensure lasting peace in Somalia, or at least, lasting calm and at worst, forceful clamping down of dissidents.

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Tags: Federation, Nairobi, Somalia